The Growling Bear

As Georgia still reels from the Russian invasion, some Middle East experts are already contemplating what a resurgent Russia means for the Middle East order (forgive the oxymoron).

"The main aim will be to weaken America's position in the Middle East. In this respect, there are differences of opinion in the Kremlin. Some ex-generals have come on record to the effect that a war with America is inevitable in a perspective of 10-15 years. The influence of these radical military men should not be overrated. But it is certainly true that the belief that America is Russia's worst and most dangerous enemy is quite common...The downfall of the Soviet empire is thought to be mainly if not entirely America's fault; Washington, it is believed, is trying to hurt Russia all the time in every possible way."

Russia's historical ally in the Middle East, dating from the Soviet era, has been Syria. They have also completed military deals with the Iranian regime. If Russia plans to use these states to launch an insurgency against America's regional allies, the obvious target is, first, Iraq -- and then Lebanon. It sounds like a classic proxy battle; welcome back to the Cold War.

Russia has already played an active diplomatic role in Syria and Lebanon recently. In what direction it pushes Syria now, post-Georgia invasion, bears watching.