Bear Hug

Russia is shows every intention of expanding its conflict with the United States and NATO to the Middle East. President Assad just completed a trip to Moscow, where he met with Medvedev and Putin. Assad was not especially coy about the purpose of the meetings: "Of course military and technical cooperation is the main issue. Weapons purchases are very important...I think we should speed it up."

Fresh on the heels of Assad's visit, newspapers have reported that Hezbollah has struck a deal with Russia to purchase new anti-tank and anti-air missiles. Assad also said that he was willing to discuss placing Russian-built missile defense systems on Syrian territory.

Notes on a Murder

"As he drove past the houses that lined the main street of his village of Betroumine in the northern district of Koura, Father Camille Katrib pointed out the identity of the occupants. 'This man is a doctor -- he works in the United States. This is the house of the mayor -- he pays out of his own pocket for many of the goods of the village, sometimes he even puts the stamps on letters.' Father Katrib paused, and then continued in a hushed voice. 'And this is the house of the murderer.'"

Read it all here.

1957 All Over Again

In October 1957, the Soviet Union launched the first artificial satellite, Sputnik 1. The realization that the USSR had beaten the Americans in getting a satellite into orbit triggered the "space race," and fear that the Soviets were technologically ahead the Americans led to John F. Kennedy's 1960 campaign pledge to close the "missile gap."

Fast-forward over a half a century: Iran has just launched a rocket that could serve as its first satellite carrier. There was no actual satellite aboard the rocket, and the Americans are claiming that the launch actually failed. But no matter: the test has inspired concern among Western security officials, and the Iranian government has magnanimously offered to launch the satellites of other Muslim nations.

While Sputnik inspired near-panic in the West, the Iranian test should serve to put the current international balance of power in the proper perspective. Compared to America's 20th century enemies, the Iranian-led coalition is almost laughably weak. At best, Iran can stunt American plans until the US becomes disinterested or fundamentally weakened by other factors. But in terms of establishing a rival order, Iran isn't a threat -- it's a joke.

The Growling Bear

As Georgia still reels from the Russian invasion, some Middle East experts are already contemplating what a resurgent Russia means for the Middle East order (forgive the oxymoron).

"The main aim will be to weaken America's position in the Middle East. In this respect, there are differences of opinion in the Kremlin. Some ex-generals have come on record to the effect that a war with America is inevitable in a perspective of 10-15 years. The influence of these radical military men should not be overrated. But it is certainly true that the belief that America is Russia's worst and most dangerous enemy is quite common...The downfall of the Soviet empire is thought to be mainly if not entirely America's fault; Washington, it is believed, is trying to hurt Russia all the time in every possible way."

Russia's historical ally in the Middle East, dating from the Soviet era, has been Syria. They have also completed military deals with the Iranian regime. If Russia plans to use these states to launch an insurgency against America's regional allies, the obvious target is, first, Iraq -- and then Lebanon. It sounds like a classic proxy battle; welcome back to the Cold War.

Russia has already played an active diplomatic role in Syria and Lebanon recently. In what direction it pushes Syria now, post-Georgia invasion, bears watching.

The SLA Today

What is the fate of proxies who are no longer of use to the states that sponsored them? In the case of the South Lebanon Army, an Israeli-sponsored militia that ruled South Lebanon until the Israeli pullout in 2000, the answer is -- nothing good:

"On Sunday, approximately 100 SLA soldiers and their family members demonstrated opposite the David Gate at the Kirya base in Tel Aviv...The protesters feel betrayed by the Defense Ministry, which they believe abandoned them after many years of service.

...

"We want the minimum that we deserve. I am not a new immigrant, I fought, served in the army and I deserve to be treated by the Defense Ministry. This is what we want. You can't throw people at the Immigrant Absorption Ministry,” said a former SLA officer."

There aren't many handouts around here, on either side of the border.