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June 29, 2008

The Rise of the Militias

Michael Totten is absolutely correct when he writes, "the incentive for communal re-armament is now greater than it has been since the [Lebanese] civil war ended." He points to Hezbollah's alleged purchase of land outside the Shia areas of Lebanon as a cause, and their role in last May's violence as the cause.

I don't know much about the land purchases, though these allegations have reappeared and disappeared for years in direct relation to the level of political tension. The fact of the matter is that Hezbollah has proved itself to be an armed militia willing to use its weapons against their fellow citizens, and this will inevitably cause tensions no matter where they are located in Lebanon. After seeing what happened to their Druze and Sunni political allies, it's easy to see why Christian leaders like Amin Gemayel would be nervous about Hezbollah outposts in Sannine.

But if the Christians are assessing developments and starting to look out for their own skin, the process is even further along with the Sunnis. After being routed in Beirut by Hezbollah, after seeing the impotence of the state in protecting its citizens, and while still engaged in fighting in Tripoli, it is hard to blame them.

Even smooth, Western-educated Sunni MPs no longer have qualms about explaining to Western journalists that they will protect their own. "When...the Lebanese army fails to protect me or to disarm those who are attacking innocent Lebanese citizens, I cannot ask the Salafists to disarm because they also have the right to fight Israel and to protect themselves,” said Tripoli MP Misbah al-Ahdab. Ahdab says the only solution is to put the issue of Hezbollah's arms on the table, "otherwise, the whole North will become Salafists, and I can only sympathize with them."

How to separate right from wrong? One tends to slip into the passive voice. The re-militarization of Lebanon's sectarian communities is a direct response to their attempt to maintain their voice in Lebanese society, following Hezbollah's aggression and the state's impotence in protecting its people. At the same time, it is impossible to expect the breakdown of law and order to result in anything other than a catastrophe for all of Lebanon. Fatalism is in vogue these days; so it goes.

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