Unlucky Seven

According to the wires, about seven people have been killed in Beirut, Bekaa, and the North in this latest round of fighting. That's obviously seven too many, but let me put this in perspective for those not in Beirut: for much of last night, the city was rattling until dawn with automatic weapons fire and RPG explosions. Frankly, it is surprising that much gunfire can occur in one place with only seven casualties.

Most of the people I've talked to have said that the vast majority of the gunfire is aimed towards the sky. When the militiamen hear gunfire coming from the other side, they direct their weapons in the air and fire in such a way that the bullets will land on their rivals' territory.

What does that tell us? Well, it means that both sides see a mutual interest in keeping the situation somewhat under control. And they're right. People remember the civil war; they know they have to live with each other. All signs from Ras Beirut suggest that Hezbollah is maintaining a professional, but firm, hold on their newly won territory. They have nothing to gain, and everything to lose, from needlessly antagonizing the local population.

As for the Future Movement and the PSP -- look, I'm perfectly willing to believe that, in the end, they would lose a confrontation with Hezbollah. But I'm not willing to believe that they would go down without punching someone in the mouth first. And we simply haven't seen any indication that they've attempted seriously to resist Hezbollah's invasion of their territory. That is the shoe that has yet to drop. But just wait a while.