Israel Watches

Israel announced that it will not intervene in the clashes currently occurring throughout Lebanon, but that they are "closely watching developments" there. Israeli jets flew over South Lebanon today, which just goes to show that Israel's idea of keeping an eye on developments isn't confined to watching CNN.

It shouldn't come as much of a surprise that the Israelis aren't planning to take any immediate action. They don't have any major allies in this country, and any military campaign would only undermine the position of the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL, which Israel depends on to keep Hezbollah away from its southern border.

However, there is increasing certainty in Israel that military action in Lebanon will be necessary sooner, rather than later. Haaretz is concerned that Hezbollah will use its bolstered domestic position to bully UNIFIL and re-establish its presence on Israel's northern border. That sounds plausible. After this confrontation, Hezbollah will want to show that it is holding onto its weapons for some greater purpose than marching around West Beirut. They also have not yet avenged the assassination of Imad Mugniyah, a fact that is raising recurring questions regarding Hezbollah's military capabilities.

YNet, meanwhile, focuses on the Iranian role in Hezbollah's belligerence. Because of their experience with Hamas, not many Israelis are going to have patience with a newly aggressive, Iranian-funded militia on their border. YNet's analysis of Lebanese politics is ridiculous -- they speak of how Hezbollah is poised to win the next Parliamentary elections and turn Lebanon into an "Iranian colony." Almost certainly, there will be fewer communities willing to ally themselves with Hezbollah after this fiasco. Nevertheless, this is how Israel perceives Lebanon today, a fact which is both ominous and entirely predictable.