All About History

Yes, I know, I've been negligent. But I don't want you to think that I have given up on Lebanon. I have been writing, just for NOW Lebanon, rather than here. Oh, the stories I could tell. But as a general rule, I am hesitant to write about people I interview for them in this space. I approach them as a journalist for NOW, and have a feeling that many sources might not take too kindly to their words ending up on this blog. So while I am sure that everyone is dying to read an MTV Cribs-esque description of Sami Gemayel's apartment, you're just going to have to do without.

I really enjoyed writing this story, on the difficulty of polling in the Arab world. The point that I wanted to drive home is that accurate polling is a very difficult feat, and the natural obstacles erected in the Arab world only make it more difficult. You can't correct for an unrepresentative sample by merely polling a whole slew of extra people. My favorite example of this is the story of The Literary Digest's presidential poll in 1936.

In that year, the magazine sent out surveys to over ten million Americans, asking them who they would vote for in the Presidential race between the Democrat, Franklin D. Roosevelt, and the Republican challenger Alf Landon. Based on the 2.3 million ballots that were returned, the Digest predicted confidently that Landon would win the election in a landslide. But when Election Day rolled around, it was Roosevelt who won a landslide -- receiving over 60% of the vote, to Landon’s 36%. The Digest’s survey size, though huge, was biased towards more wealthy individuals, who favored the Republican candidate.

See? You thought this blog was history. But, as it turns out, it is just about history.