Memo To Sheikh Saad

Here's what the "Sunni street" is saying. From the LAT:

"'We are prepared to fight for a few hours but not more,' said one of the Sunni fighters in the waning moments of the battle. 'Where do we get ammunition and weapons from? We are blocked. The roads are blocked. Even Saad Hariri has left us to face our fate alone.'"

And this, from yesterday's New York Times:

"'Saad Hariri let us down,' said one young man in Tarik Jadideh, where the streets were still littered with broken glass on Friday, and blackened building facades bore witness to fierce battles the night before with rocket-propelled grenades and small arms. 'We don't want the Future Movement any more, or the whole Hariri family.' The man refused to give his name, because Mr. Hariri is such an important figure in the area."

The army neglected to confront Hezbollah's militiamen, with the idea that letting one side run roughshod would limit casualties. This might have been true in the short term, but it is only going to ensure the recurrence of violence in the future.

There is no community in the world that will roll over meekly when its government or political leaders are unable to protect them. Since it seems to be a fantasy that the Lebanese army is going to do anything positive, Saad Hariri is going to be under intense pressure from his supporters to (re)build a stronger, larger, and better-trained militia. If he does not, he will no longer be the leader of Lebanese Sunnis. Simple as that.

The Saudis Are Less Than Pleased

I would not recommend reading Asharq al-Awsat's English site, because -- despite being flush with Saudi petro-dollars -- they seemingly have not thought to invest in a talented Arabic-to-English translator. Nevertheless, the pan-Arab daily is run by Saudi prince Salman bin Abdul Aziz, the half-brother of King Abdullah, so it's a fair bet that it's editorial line does not stray far from the Saudi government's.

And Asharq al-Awsat has done the journalistic equivalent of bursting an aneurysm in the past few days over Lebanon. Greatest hits include Hezbollah: The End Of A Legend, The Holocaust Of The Resistance, Hezbollah: The Defeat Of Victory, and Hezbollah...The Ugliest Picture. Yes, this has all been published in the past 72 hours.

Okay, so that is the response in print. What will be the response on the ground?

Israel Watches

Israel announced that it will not intervene in the clashes currently occurring throughout Lebanon, but that they are "closely watching developments" there. Israeli jets flew over South Lebanon today, which just goes to show that Israel's idea of keeping an eye on developments isn't confined to watching CNN.

It shouldn't come as much of a surprise that the Israelis aren't planning to take any immediate action. They don't have any major allies in this country, and any military campaign would only undermine the position of the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL, which Israel depends on to keep Hezbollah away from its southern border.

However, there is increasing certainty in Israel that military action in Lebanon will be necessary sooner, rather than later. Haaretz is concerned that Hezbollah will use its bolstered domestic position to bully UNIFIL and re-establish its presence on Israel's northern border. That sounds plausible. After this confrontation, Hezbollah will want to show that it is holding onto its weapons for some greater purpose than marching around West Beirut. They also have not yet avenged the assassination of Imad Mugniyah, a fact that is raising recurring questions regarding Hezbollah's military capabilities.

YNet, meanwhile, focuses on the Iranian role in Hezbollah's belligerence. Because of their experience with Hamas, not many Israelis are going to have patience with a newly aggressive, Iranian-funded militia on their border. YNet's analysis of Lebanese politics is ridiculous -- they speak of how Hezbollah is poised to win the next Parliamentary elections and turn Lebanon into an "Iranian colony." Almost certainly, there will be fewer communities willing to ally themselves with Hezbollah after this fiasco. Nevertheless, this is how Israel perceives Lebanon today, a fact which is both ominous and entirely predictable.

Stop the Presses

Originally posted on The Weekly Standard blog:

Of all the scummy things the Hezbollah and its allies have done during their takeover of West Beirut, the burning of pro-government media outlets is one of the worst. Prominent anti-Syrian media figures have long been the target of political violence: journalists Samir Kassir and Gebran Tueni were assassinated during the 2005 Cedar Revolution, and the television anchor May Chidiac barely survived a car bomb assassination attempt.

This time around, Hezbollah militants have ransacked the media offices of the pro-government Future Movement, headed by Saad Hariri, throughout Beirut. Make no mistake: this is an orchestrated attack. Hezbollah's supporters have destroyed Future Movement TV antennas across the city and threatened pro-government journalists. Most egregiously, they invaded and set fire to the Future Movement newspaper, located in West Beirut. As has become routine, the Lebanese army stood by and watched while these offices were destroyed.

This shows that the pro-Syrian forces do have a perverse understanding of the importance of public relations. It is not enough to control the streets, each side is trying to win "hearts and minds." However, Hezbollah's actions have accomplished just the opposite. Their occupation of Beirut's Sunni areas has shattered whatever remaining goodwill the party retained among non-Shia Lebanese.

Fortunately for Lebanon, its journalists are a hardy breed. The Lebanese Press Club organized a march in solidarity of Future media outlets today -- including, among others, May Chidiac. Mustapha, who blogs at Beirut Spring, has also organized a campaign in solidarity of freedom of the press in Lebanon.

The Lebanese will not surrender without a fight.

Retreat

The Army is announcing that it will overturn the two government initiatives that started all of this. They will taken control of the probe into Hezbollah's communication network, and have agreed to maintain Gen. Wafiq Shqeir at his post as airport security chief, pending an investigation which, incidentally, has a predetermined result.

Hariri and Jumblatt are announcing that they accept the Army's decision. This is their way to walk back the confrontation, without actually taking an action which overturns their previous actions. How the people of West Beirut react to Hariri, after being left defenseless to Hezbollah's onslaught and then having the government promptly reverse itself, remains to be seen.

P.SAl-Manar is reporting that the opposition is refusing to end their "protest" until "all demands are met." And why shouldn't they? Did the government just think that, if they gave Hezbollah half of what they wanted, they would just go away?

Hamra Under Siege

One of the two stories I punched out yesterday:

Starting late last night and continuing into the morning, Hezbollah and Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP) militiamen engaged in street clashes on the major roads of Hamra and Verdun, among other areas of broader Ras Beirut. "We have an SSNP flag right under us. I'm looking at their guys as we speak," noted Dana, a resident of Hamra. "The ones that I can see are holding their guns...they stop cars; like, every time a car passes by, they stop the car. If they like it, they'll let it go. If they don't, they'll make it turn around."

Fighting has been punctuated by automatic weapons fire and explosions of rocket-propelled grenades. Residents stayed indoors and away from windows, to avoid ricocheting bullets. "Right now, we're looking at about 10 militiamen with what are RPGs mounted on their shoulders, carrying big guns. There are loud bangs, followed by militiamen running down Hamra," stated Sarah, an AUB student. "There were guys in fatigues. At first, I thought they were army. But now, I'm not so sure, because they were wearing masks on their faces...and now these guys aren't in any kinds of uniforms. It has been surreal."

While the Lebanese Army has a presence in Hamra, they are refraining from taking on the militiamen. "On Hamra Street, I don't know, about ten tanks were rolling down the street a couple of hours ago," said Sarah. "They were just talking to the militia guys, standing next to them, and just hanging out. There were not, as far as I can tell, any requests for them to go home."

In the absence of army protection, residents suggested that Hezbollah's control had spread even to the gates of the American University of Beirut. "I just heard that Amal and Hezbollah are on Bliss. Have you heard this? They locked the main gate [of AUB] right now, because they're roaming around," said Hayeon, a South Korean resident of Hamra.

"It's pretty f***ed up," said Ryan, a student at the American University of Beirut studying for a masters degree in Middle Eastern studies. "I was drinking pretty heavily, but you sober up pretty quickly when you're scared. I don't know. We've just been trying to stay indoors, trying not to freak out."

Fighting has died down as the day progressed, as militiamen loyal to Hezbollah and their allies secure their control over West Beirut. "I was walking Hamra Street ten minutes ago, and there was one Hezbollah soldier each five meters," explained Francois, a Hamra resident, around noon. "It seems to be under their control. These are the real fighters. It's like an army, with full equipment and weapons. They are really well-equipped. More than the Lebanese army, by far."

A perplexing sense of order prevails on Hamra's streets, regularly interrupted by sporadic bursts of gunfire. Nevertheless, some people were seen walking the streets and a few shops opened their doors. "Snack Faysal [on Bliss Street] is still open," announced Ryan. "They're really making a killing."

The Situation

Some morning links to get you up to speed:

Mr. Hani Hammoud, a senior advisor to Saad Hariri, declares that what occurred was "a one-sided civil war," and that, "the end result is that Iran has taken over the country."

Analysts seem perplexed about why March 14 would provoke such a conflict, given their poor showing on the ground to date. "The balance of power has shifted dramatically," says Carnegie Center bigwig Paul Salem. "It is odd that the government made such a decision."

David Schenker, at WINEP, urges the US government to push the Lebanese army to take a more active role in constraining Hezbollah.

Barack Obama issued a statement mainly made up of standard American boilerplate regarding Hezbollah. However, given the running coup d'etat in the country, there is a bizarre focus on "work[ing] with the international community and the private sector to rebuild Lebanon and get its economy back on its feet." I am also outraged that he neglected to mention the pressing issue of civil marriage.

But other than all of that, Lebanon is stable! As things stand today, the big loser has been the Future Movement's Saad Hariri, who can neither defend his supporters' neighborhoods, easily get his message out to the masses, or enforce his will through his position as Parliamentary majority leader. This inefficacy could easily lead Lebanese Sunnis to start looking for other political options. But that, as they say, is another post for another day.

Unlucky Seven

According to the wires, about seven people have been killed in Beirut, Bekaa, and the North in this latest round of fighting. That's obviously seven too many, but let me put this in perspective for those not in Beirut: for much of last night, the city was rattling until dawn with automatic weapons fire and RPG explosions. Frankly, it is surprising that much gunfire can occur in one place with only seven casualties.

Most of the people I've talked to have said that the vast majority of the gunfire is aimed towards the sky. When the militiamen hear gunfire coming from the other side, they direct their weapons in the air and fire in such a way that the bullets will land on their rivals' territory.

What does that tell us? Well, it means that both sides see a mutual interest in keeping the situation somewhat under control. And they're right. People remember the civil war; they know they have to live with each other. All signs from Ras Beirut suggest that Hezbollah is maintaining a professional, but firm, hold on their newly won territory. They have nothing to gain, and everything to lose, from needlessly antagonizing the local population.

As for the Future Movement and the PSP -- look, I'm perfectly willing to believe that, in the end, they would lose a confrontation with Hezbollah. But I'm not willing to believe that they would go down without punching someone in the mouth first. And we simply haven't seen any indication that they've attempted seriously to resist Hezbollah's invasion of their territory. That is the shoe that has yet to drop. But just wait a while.

Rout

It wasn't a battle, really. Hezbollah, and its hangers-on, simply strutted into all of West Beirut and the Future Movement supporters laid down their weapons. There doesn't seem to be enough casualties to suggest that anybody put up a very serious attempt to stop them.

Well -- what are the consequences of such a development? On the political level, it means that the central government is put in an increasingly untenable position. The power of bureaucrats issuing edicts from the Grand Serail is based on the assumption that someone, somewhere on the streets, is going to implement them. If they are just scribbling on pieces of paper, it is going to become increasingly hard to justify their hold on power.

On the other hand, Hezbollah is now occupying territory which is fundamentally hostile to their presence. There is going to be a lot of crowing in the next few days about Hezbollah's superior military capabilities. Very well. There was a lot of crowing in America in April 2003, when the military brought down Saddam Hussein's regime. I have no idea if the retaliation from the Sunni, Druze, and Christian communities will come tomorrow, or five years from now. But I am certain that the sanctity of the "Resistance," in the eyes of non-Shia Lebanese, has been lost forever.

All About History

Yes, I know, I've been negligent. But I don't want you to think that I have given up on Lebanon. I have been writing, just for NOW Lebanon, rather than here. Oh, the stories I could tell. But as a general rule, I am hesitant to write about people I interview for them in this space. I approach them as a journalist for NOW, and have a feeling that many sources might not take too kindly to their words ending up on this blog. So while I am sure that everyone is dying to read an MTV Cribs-esque description of Sami Gemayel's apartment, you're just going to have to do without.

I really enjoyed writing this story, on the difficulty of polling in the Arab world. The point that I wanted to drive home is that accurate polling is a very difficult feat, and the natural obstacles erected in the Arab world only make it more difficult. You can't correct for an unrepresentative sample by merely polling a whole slew of extra people. My favorite example of this is the story of The Literary Digest's presidential poll in 1936.

In that year, the magazine sent out surveys to over ten million Americans, asking them who they would vote for in the Presidential race between the Democrat, Franklin D. Roosevelt, and the Republican challenger Alf Landon. Based on the 2.3 million ballots that were returned, the Digest predicted confidently that Landon would win the election in a landslide. But when Election Day rolled around, it was Roosevelt who won a landslide -- receiving over 60% of the vote, to Landon’s 36%. The Digest’s survey size, though huge, was biased towards more wealthy individuals, who favored the Republican candidate.

See? You thought this blog was history. But, as it turns out, it is just about history.