What Gaza Means For Lebanon

In Lebanon, the issue of how to respond to Israel involves a constant weighing of the crimes of the Zionist regime on one hand, and fear of Israeli retribution on the other. When Israel withdrew from South Lebanon in 2000, there was a noticeable decline in support among non-Shia Lebanese for Hezbollah's possession of weapons. However, Israel's bombing campaign in Gaza could shift the balance back to a more favorable position for the Shia militia.

According to the IHT, Israeli aircraft and troops killed 54 people and wounded over 100 on Saturday. Hezbollah is already fuming over the assassination of Imad Mugniyah. However, convincing Lebanese to accept a repeat of the 2006 war over the death of a terrorist implicated in bombing Jewish cultural centers in South America is a hard sell. On the other hand, if Israel re-invades Gaza, the number of Lebanese who would publicly object to renewed attacks across the Blue Line would be considerably smaller.

We are also going to see a renewed effort by the opposition to tie the government to Israel, through their shared Western allies. After the USS Cole arrived, the opposition made two essential points: Siniora had asked for the presence of the US warship, and, pace Berri, "The American fleet is support for the completion of Israel's plan." The majority will try to defuse this by condemning the Israeli attacks as loudly as the opposition -- but that will paint them into a corner if they want to prevent Hezbollah for renewing its attacks on North Israel.

That's the thing about war. Those who try to stay in the middle of the road generally get run over.