Peace, Now

Especially after the assassination of Mugniyah, everyone seems to be just waiting for the Israeli bombs to fall on Beirut. Here's why it's not likely to happen any time soon:

While Israel and Hamas are currently taking a breather in Gaza, I don't think anybody believes that fighting has stopped. It seems like a folly to open a second front when the violence from the Palestinian territories could just be escalating. There is also reason to believe that Israel will take a marginally more cautious approach in the future, in contrast to their 2006 adventure in Lebanon. Policymakers currently believe their interest is in bolstering the PLO government in the West Bank and proceeding with peace negotiations. However, as recent days have proven, this cannot move forward if Israeli warplanes are bombing Gaza -- and the same probably holds true for Lebanon.

Moreover, the Lebanon front does not currently represent a direct threat to Israel. As Olmert bragged, "we achieved deterrence against Hizbullah, which hasn't dared to fire a single rocket in a year and a half." This is a rather self-serving statement, but it's also true in broad strokes. No attacks are coming from South Lebanon, so it's unclear what an Israeli attack could serve to accomplish. Of course, this all assumes that Hezbollah does not do something overwhelmingly stupid in the coming days...