Neither Free nor Fair -- But Important

That's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to your right, voting in Iran's Parliamentary elections on Friday. Quite a democrat, he is. The Iranian political system is an endlessly intriguing thing -- designed to maximize the power of the mullahs, but at the same time to provide an outlet for popular expression. By keeping dissenting voices in the system, they have managed so far to maintain the government's stability. So far.

In some ways, the faux-democracy is similar to Syrian-era Lebanon. The trick is to use just the right amount of repression. The threat can come from both directions: too much freedom, and you give power to figures who want to overturn the fundamental structure of the Islamic Republic. Too little freedom, and you alienate a critical mass of people who, once excluded from the political game, become revolutionary.

The problem for the conservatives is that it is becoming harder and harder to find this balance. Even after sweeping disqualifications of many reformist candidates, including former ministers and MPs, the reformists are still probably going to pick up about ten seats in the next Parliament. The conservatives don't believe they can trust them with real power, but also don't dare cut them out from politics completely.

This isn't a dynamic that is going to change the basic nature of the Iranian government in a few months. But the constant balancing act -- like a game of Jenga where blocks keep on being pulled away -- is what to watch in the mid to long-term.