A "Criminal Network"

Many, no doubt, will denigrate UN investigator Daniel Bellemare's first report, which contained the revelation that a "criminal network" was behind the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri. This would be wrong. Mr. Bellemare's report has conclusively ruled out the much-debated theories that Hariri was the victim of an unfortunate gas line explosion, a freak asteroid impact, or a depressed trapeeze artist seeking to lash out at his social isolation from the rest of the circus troupe.

Seriously, the details are too depressing to go into right now. One hopes that investigators are holding back information until the tribunal is up and running, so Syria does not sabotage the investigation more than they are already attempting to. Meanwhile, we know someone in Turtle Bay is annoyed by this milquetoast report. An anonymous "senior diplomat" argued: "Nowhere in the report was it said or implied that Syria is innocent of direct involvement in planning Hariri's murder and carrying it out."

Well, of course. But, as far as the international tribunal is concerned, everyone -- even Syrian officials -- is innocent until proven guilty. And we're no closer to reaching that point than before Mr. Bellemare released his report.

Assignment Desk

Every journalist knows of stories that they are too busy, lazy, or drunk to actually write. I will leave it to your imagination which one of these obstacles has prevented me from turning the following ideas into articles. Who knows, maybe some of them will still see the light of day. But, for now, I leave them up for your consideration.

• Word Problem: Alastair Crooke argued that Western powers must be willing to talk with radical Islamic forces, including al-Qaeda. Without challenging the ideological assumptions of Islamist movements, he claims, the West's application of force is futile. Meanwhile, Michael Young takes Crooke to task for failing to accurately define radical Islam or distinguish between the different types of political Islam.

  Is there any merit to Crooke's argument? What would a civilizational dialogue between George W. Bush and Osama Bin Laden sound like? What are the thresholds, if any, that radical Islamist movements need to meet before Western powers engage them?

  Sources: Alistair Crooke, Michael Young, Dennis Ross, Henry Kissinger

• Flagging Interest: The Dutch Embassy has apparently taken down the flag outside of their embassy. This attempt to fly under the radar would perhaps have been more successful if the embassy wasn't located in a prominent building called The Netherlands Tower. Oops.

  Why is the Dutch flag stored somewhere in the building's netherlands? No, that horrible pun would probably not make it into the piece. Are there other embassies which have adopted a lower profile in recent months? Do they know something we don't?

  Sources:Dutch Embassy, other embassies in and around Beirut

• The Day After: The Arab Summit is set to kick off, sans a representative from Lebanon. Half of the Arab heads of state are skipping the trip to Damascus, in protest of Syria's interference in Lebanon and alliance with Iran. It remains to be seen what business the Arab Summit can address with only low-ranking representatives from some of the regional heavyweights, and the importance given to the issue of Lebanon's vacant Presidency.

  Many political developments (or lack thereof) in the past month were explained as manuevering related to the summit. With it finally out of the way, the Arab states could move into a period of greater conflict -- or reconciliation. What are the signs that could determine the direction of regional politics in the medium-term? Bonus points for uncovering information about the much-awaited Syrian "investigation" into Mugniyah's assassination.

  Sources:Marwan Hamadeh, Paul Salem, Joshua Landis, Mohammed Habash

The Press Index

Here's a job for someone with far too much time on their hands, inspired by this article about an alleged influx of foreign journalists to Beirut: tally the number of foreign journalists in the country on any given date, and use that number as a barometer for Lebanon's instability. The logic is that the international press is only going to cover Lebanon if it is about to explode, and that their response will probably be quicker than most foreign countries or, say, am Arab League diplomatic summit.

The LA Times article suggests that there has been a noticeable uptick in the Press Index during the past few months. I'd tend to disagree -- some journalists may have found their way here because of the (relative) calm in Iraq, but we're probably in a holding pattern. Everyone is just waiting for the next shoe to drop, and that can be done from Manhattan.

In Praise Of Hamra's Cafes

Hemingway once wrote a great short story titled "A Clean, Well-Lighted Place," a sort of love song to a good cafe. If I had it in front of me right now, I would quote from it, but all I have is the story of Brian Keenan's return to Beirut after seventeen years, in the Sunday Times.

Some of the descriptions of Beirut are horribly overwrought -- unforgiveable for any author except one writing about a place where he was imprisoned by terrorists for over four years (which, it turns out, is Keenan's relationship to the city). However, I did enjoy this description of the cafes in Hamra:

"For the next few days I walked around the streets of the Hamra area, with my feet hardly touching the ground. The street vendors and their stalls had gone. Incredibly, the bedlam of the traffic, with horns permanently depressed, had reduced in volume by several decibels. Nor were people screaming their conversations at one another. Instead, they retreated to trendy cafe bars, where they played chess or backgammon and conversed with an air of good-natured languor or passionate engagement.

I loved these places. There was a buzz and ease about them which made me feel like a regular as I listened to conversations moving effortlessly from Arabic to English or French. I looked at the young people around me and thought of my students at the university where I had taught. I wondered where they had gone and if any of them had not survived the Israeli air raids."

Enjoy your Easter Sunday, see your family, relax in a cafe -- for tomorrow, Nasrallah marks the fortieth day.

Boycott It Is

Justice Minister Charles Rizk announced that Lebanon will "most probably" boycott the Arab Summit.

Everyone in favor of the decision should probably enjoy this symbolic protest against Syria's (admittedly evil and appalling) interference in Lebanon now. Because next week Bashar al-Assad, Saud al-Faisal, and Manouchehr Mottaki are all going to be sitting in the same room, and we are all going to be worrying what's being said behind the back of the Lebanese government. Congratulations, I guess.

Lions and Lambs Lying Down Together...

There is a wonderful editorial in the right-leaning Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth opposed to the Israeli government's decision to boycott al-Jazeera, due to their allegedly biased coverage of the violence in Gaza. My favorite graf:

"In fact, it is too bad that we don't see many more boycotts in Israel by official bodies unpleased with media outlets and journalists -- because a boycott on a journalist is in fact a citation. It means that the journalist is fulfilling its journalistic mission as the public's representative, rather than serving as the representative of the government ministry or corporation is reports on.

...

The problem, therefore, is not al-Jazeera. The problem lies with the media outlets and journalists that are not boycotted on occasion. Perhaps this means they are not critical or biting enough. Therefore, here is yet another rule of thumb for the benefit of news consumers: Be careful of journalists who are loved by the government."

Journalists, I think, should always approach their sources with suspicion -- and if that suspicion slips into contempt, so be it. This is a lesson that could be better learned in both Israel, and the Arab world.

Unprepared

"Evidently they had never heard that an Arab soldier is supposed to run away after a short engagement with the Israelis," reads a quotation from an anonymous IDF soldier, in this US Army-sponsored report on the 2006 Hezbollah-Israel war. If you have time, read the whole thing. While it doesn't say much that is new about the conflict, it provides a level of detail not often seen and compiles much of the available information into one source.

All in all, the report tells the story of a remarkably efficient Hezbollah fighters, coupled with a fickle and unprepared Israeli battle plan. Much of the blame falls to Chief of the General Staff Dan Halutz, whose "steadfast confidence in air power, coupled with his disdain for land warfare, increased the strength of the IAF at the expense of the ground forces." The ever-quotable Timor Goksel remarks that the IDF bulldozed to Beirut in one day in 1982, but in 2006 couldn't go more than a few miles in almost a week.

The report does not focus on what everyone in Lebanon wants to know -- namely, what Israel would do in the event of another confrontation with Hezbollah. However, the obvious failure of Israeli air power, coupled with limited ground incursions, to deal Hezbollah a fatal blow suggests that there would only be one option left on the table in the event of a reprise: a land, sea, and air invasion of South Lebanon, the Bekaa, and Beirut's southern suburbs.

Neither Free nor Fair -- But Important

That's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to your right, voting in Iran's Parliamentary elections on Friday. Quite a democrat, he is. The Iranian political system is an endlessly intriguing thing -- designed to maximize the power of the mullahs, but at the same time to provide an outlet for popular expression. By keeping dissenting voices in the system, they have managed so far to maintain the government's stability. So far.

In some ways, the faux-democracy is similar to Syrian-era Lebanon. The trick is to use just the right amount of repression. The threat can come from both directions: too much freedom, and you give power to figures who want to overturn the fundamental structure of the Islamic Republic. Too little freedom, and you alienate a critical mass of people who, once excluded from the political game, become revolutionary.

The problem for the conservatives is that it is becoming harder and harder to find this balance. Even after sweeping disqualifications of many reformist candidates, including former ministers and MPs, the reformists are still probably going to pick up about ten seats in the next Parliament. The conservatives don't believe they can trust them with real power, but also don't dare cut them out from politics completely.

This isn't a dynamic that is going to change the basic nature of the Iranian government in a few months. But the constant balancing act -- like a game of Jenga where blocks keep on being pulled away -- is what to watch in the mid to long-term.

Go East, Young Man

Diplomats, we know, love to play games. The Syrian Assistant Foreign Minister just happened to arrive in Beirut, invitation to the Arab summit in hand, when Prime Minister Siniora was away at Dakar. He just happened to present the invitation to resigned Foreign Minister Fawzi Salloukh. And now it's the Lebanese government's turn to decide how they want to play this game.

I would go to Damascus. Maybe Siniora himself shouldn't go, but perhaps acting Foreign Minister Tareq Mitri -- see, we can play games too. There will not be a better chance in the near future to legitimize the Siniora government in the Arab world. The Syrians are obviously leery about being in the same room as the Lebanese government. The March 14 leaders should make their presence felt by stating their case -- very loudly.

Critics argue that boycotting the summit will send a message to Syria for their terrorism in Lebanon. But if the summit is attended by the government's Arab allies, most notably Egypt and Saudi Arabia, this threat loses its salience. Amr Moussa is on record saying that Saudi will attend the summit, and other reports said that the Arab states were conditioning their response on whether Lebanon received an invitation. If the major Arab states do send representatives, does anyone really want them alone in a room with Syrian officials while Lebanon's leaders twiddle their thumbs in Beirut?

Peace, Now

Especially after the assassination of Mugniyah, everyone seems to be just waiting for the Israeli bombs to fall on Beirut. Here's why it's not likely to happen any time soon:

While Israel and Hamas are currently taking a breather in Gaza, I don't think anybody believes that fighting has stopped. It seems like a folly to open a second front when the violence from the Palestinian territories could just be escalating. There is also reason to believe that Israel will take a marginally more cautious approach in the future, in contrast to their 2006 adventure in Lebanon. Policymakers currently believe their interest is in bolstering the PLO government in the West Bank and proceeding with peace negotiations. However, as recent days have proven, this cannot move forward if Israeli warplanes are bombing Gaza -- and the same probably holds true for Lebanon.

Moreover, the Lebanon front does not currently represent a direct threat to Israel. As Olmert bragged, "we achieved deterrence against Hizbullah, which hasn't dared to fire a single rocket in a year and a half." This is a rather self-serving statement, but it's also true in broad strokes. No attacks are coming from South Lebanon, so it's unclear what an Israeli attack could serve to accomplish. Of course, this all assumes that Hezbollah does not do something overwhelmingly stupid in the coming days...

The 18th Sect

I apologize for not updating this blog more last week. I found myself at a loss for truly interesting news to cover. That said, this article in NOW Lebanon is well worth your time. I didn't write it, sadly, but I can claim credit for prodding the author into action and editing the piece.

Mr. Ronnie Chatah tracks the history of Jews in Lebanon, from their journey here following the 1948 war, to their persecution after the 1967 war, to their near-extinction today:

"When Israel invaded Lebanon and reached Beirut in the summer of 1982, the Israeli government offered the remaining Lebanese Jews Israeli citizenship. According to a report issued by British daily The Times in August of that year, not one Lebanese Jew accepted the offer. 'I was offered Israeli citizenship,' Liza confirmed, 'when [Ariel] Sharon came to Beirut. I wasn’t the only one then to simply turn it down. I am not, and will never be, Israeli.' Indeed, Zionism was largely unattractive even to many of the 500,000 Arab Jews that fled to Israel. However, there was no other country willing to accept them as refugees.

Read the whole thing.

What Gaza Means For Lebanon

In Lebanon, the issue of how to respond to Israel involves a constant weighing of the crimes of the Zionist regime on one hand, and fear of Israeli retribution on the other. When Israel withdrew from South Lebanon in 2000, there was a noticeable decline in support among non-Shia Lebanese for Hezbollah's possession of weapons. However, Israel's bombing campaign in Gaza could shift the balance back to a more favorable position for the Shia militia.

According to the IHT, Israeli aircraft and troops killed 54 people and wounded over 100 on Saturday. Hezbollah is already fuming over the assassination of Imad Mugniyah. However, convincing Lebanese to accept a repeat of the 2006 war over the death of a terrorist implicated in bombing Jewish cultural centers in South America is a hard sell. On the other hand, if Israel re-invades Gaza, the number of Lebanese who would publicly object to renewed attacks across the Blue Line would be considerably smaller.

We are also going to see a renewed effort by the opposition to tie the government to Israel, through their shared Western allies. After the USS Cole arrived, the opposition made two essential points: Siniora had asked for the presence of the US warship, and, pace Berri, "The American fleet is support for the completion of Israel's plan." The majority will try to defuse this by condemning the Israeli attacks as loudly as the opposition -- but that will paint them into a corner if they want to prevent Hezbollah for renewing its attacks on North Israel.

That's the thing about war. Those who try to stay in the middle of the road generally get run over.

Too Little, Too Late?

Do not ask me why the headline of every story on the USS Cole's deployment off Lebanon's coast focuses on Hezbollah's anger over its presence. It is the least interesting angle of the day's events.

What about, for example, the majority's response? Siniora's did not exactly welcome the return of the Americans with open arms, taking to television to assure the Lebanese that "[w]e did not ask anyone to send warships." Very well, I suppose. Nobody wants to play the role of the younger sibling who calls over the big brother when he is picked on. The reaction was different, I suspect, in private. And almost all of the reactions were in private; MPs who are normally quick to give a quote were suspiciously silent yesterday.

What about the fact that nobody seems to be taking this move particularly seriously? There is very little sense at the moment that the presence of the USS Cole represents an American intention to use force in the near to mid-term. It is just another message, another negotiating tactic in Lebanon's political deadlock. Last summer, when government leaders were looking, apparently in vain, for signs of international support for a President elected with an absolute majority, this may have been enough. At this stage of the game, without the addition of significantly more ships, I don't believe it will be met with anything more than a shrug.