Arrested Development

If I was going to be cynical about the arrest of eleven army soldiers and six civilians for the riots in Chiyah last week -- and it usually pays to be cynical about anything politics-related -- I would say that this is a wonderful way of splitting the difference between the opposition and the government. Hezbollah and Amal were obviously demanding blood (pardon the pun) for the killings of their supporters in Chiyah, and held their support for Suleiman's Presidential hopes as ammunition. The unpleasantness of throwing a few soldiers under the bus pales in comparison to the implosion of Suleiman's candidacy for President.

That said, there is no indication whatsoever that these soldiers weren't arrested for perfectly legitimate reasons. News reports quoted anonymous sources saying that some of the victims killed in the riots were hit with M-16 bullets -- the standard assault rifle of the Lebanese Army. Sometimes, fair investigations reach politically convenient results.

The past few weeks have told us a great deal about President-in-waiting Suleiman's political skills. He has shown himself to be proficient at treading the middle ground between the political poles. He knows how to send the proper signals to the opposition, without endangering his support from the majority. Take his declaration that the Winograd Report marked a victory for the Lebanese Army over Israel. That the Lebanese Army had anything to do with Israel's defeat is, of course, incorrect -- but it does signal the opposition that his anti-Israel views are sincere. Some in March 14 may roll their eyes, but they're not about to do anything else. Ridiculous statement, good politics.