Will Aoun Oppose Suleiman?

According to Naharnet, Aoun accepts the nomination of General Suleiman -- as long as his election is "in line with my intitiative." To review, here are some of the highlights of Aoun's initiative: the new President's term will in expire in about two years, after the Parliamentary elections, Saad Hariri chooses a new Prime Minister who is not a member of his Future Movement, and a unity government is formed with 55% representation for the majority, and 45% for the minority.

It doesn't take a genius to figure out that not all of these things are going to happen. The two-year Presidential term doesn't seem to have any support outside of Aounist circles, and if the opposition gets Michel Suleiman as President and a minority veto in the cabinet, it will be hard to view the past year's standoff as anything but an unqualified victory for the opposition.

No matter what he does, I doubt whether Aoun has the power to stop the Suleiman juggernaut at this point. In retrospect, Suleiman's campaign was really a work of art (minimalist art, of course). Along with March 14, Aoun's erstwhile ally Michel Murr and Amal's Nabih Berri seem to be on board for his election. I could see Hezbollah sticking with Aoun as long as their opposition doesn't actually jeopardize Suleiman's candidacy. For them, the best of both worlds would be to maintain their alliance with Aoun while still making sure Suleiman becomes President. But would he risk everything to fight an unwinnable battle?Or, phrased another way: Is Aoun in 2007 any different from Aoun in 1990?