Unbalanced Priorities

There are, I suppose, good reasons for the Western world and its allies to hand over $7.4 billion to the Palestinian Authority. They want to strengthen Mahmoud Abbas vis-a-vis Hamas, they think that these funds can be used as internal leverage to pressure the PA to make internal reforms, and they want to continue the "momentum" begun at the Annapolis Conference. Very well. There are also critics of Monday's conference, who argue that the donors' aid only rewards bad behavior, will only be used to line the pockets of corrupt officials, and strengthens an organization that has never been truly committed to a solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict. I don't pretend that I am able to weigh these competing claims.

That said, any Lebanese reading about the largesse recently promised to the Palestinians must immediately think about the Paris III conference, and the aid pledged to Lebanon after the 2006 summer war. That package amounted to 7.6 billion -- slightly more than the Palestinians just received. But what's a few hundred million among friends? Lebanon has a population of around 4 million, and had recently been bombarded by one of the world's most advanced militaries for over a month. The West Bank and the Gaza Strip have a population of around 3.5 million and, while undergoing an Israeli economic blockade, have not experienced anywhere near the destruction that affected Lebanon.

More importantly, a strong Lebanon has the prospect of being a genuine, democratic ally of the West. The Lebanese government has more potential on its worst days than the Palestinian Authority has on its best. Realistically, the best Europe and America can hope for the PA is that it becomes an effective dictatorship which accepts a two-state solution in Palestine (and even that is stretching the boundaries of realism). They want to turn the PA into another Jordan. Forgive me for not being enthralled by the grandiose scope of this vision.

But, of course, Europe and America buy into the notion that the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is central to the problems that plague the Middle East. If only it can be solved, the thinking goes, Bashar al-Assad will release his political prisoners, Michel Aoun will stop obstructing the Presidential election, and Hassan Nasrallah will be replaced -- not with Naim Kassem, but perhaps Bassem Sabeh. I am, let us say, unconvinced.