Michael Young, Guest Blogger For the Day
From: Michael Young
Subject: Your Post
Dear David,
Many thanks for your post, and for finding my piece worthy of a "bravo." If I could just clarify a few points, however. Nowhere am I advocating abolishing the sectarian system. Rather, I believe that we need to reform the system by simultaneously abolishing it in Parliament and preserving it in a newly created Senate, where representation would be 50-50. This is the gist of the idea. You take from the Christians in one place, but you offer them security elsewhere through the Senate, where "fundamental issues" are to be decided. I threw in something not in Taif--the idea of a rotating presidency--so that the communities would be less hung up on the specific offices they have held since Independence, but also so that everyone could, by sharing senior posts, have a greater stake and interest in participating jointly in building the state.
My point is this: Christians have to shape future outcomes on representation themselves in such a way that more unfavorable outcomes are not forced upon them. The idea of thirds (with Sunnis, Shiites and Christians each getting a third of Parliament) is not necessarily bad per se; it is bad because the idea has been floated merely as one of many threats to dilute Christian power, not as a serious consensual proposal. Worse, if we get into the notion of thirds, that will only block what I believe is a much more necessary move toward fully deconfessionalizing Parliament--which I believe is the only thing that will ultimately save Christians, while their seeing their power gradually whittled down (as in the thirds scheme) would only push them into believing that they have no future in the system.
Why do I propose all this? Because I believe that new Christian-Muslim relations in the context of a non-confessional Parliament would force Christians to adopt a new attitude with respect toward their future, one far less apocalyptic than exists today. The paradox is that once you take down parliamentary quotas, Christians will be obliged to essentially regard their future as one of necessary collaboration with the Muslims; and since the Shiites and Sunnis each have their own interests, there is plenty of room for all sides to balance off the others. On top of that, I'm convinced that many Muslim leaders would continue to take Christians on their electoral lists to retain cross-sectarian legitimacy. That, and the presence of a Senate where a 50-50 ratio is set, I think would make Christians much more confident about their future.
So, far from limiting this to a "tactical retreat" by Christians, as you have me suggest, I see this as a fundamental re-evaluation by Christians of their relations with the Muslim communities, their position in Lebanon, and their future in a mostly Muslim region.
I'm not sure how deconfessionalism coming from the Christians would bother the Muslim communities. I do think the Sunnis and Shiites, however, would be very wary of each other, and would perhaps hesitate to give up power in Parliament. After all, despite what you hear about the Shiites being the largest community, until we have a census I have great doubts that Sunnis and Shiites are that far apart demographically. In the absence of certainty, the Muslim communities might prefer the status quo,. The obstacles to my plan is that no one really is confident enough to give up the present system, despite all the talk to the contrary.
Unfortunately, there can be no discussion of such issues while Hizbullah, and therefore the Shiites, holds far more weapons than the other communities. No one will cede power to the Shiites in such a case, and any talk of constitutional reform is impossible. Hence the need for Hizbullah to accept a process for its disarmament, and I mean a consensual process of disarmament, even if this takes time.
-Michael Young

Comments (7)
I think the political vision of Michael Young is far ahead of its time and would need a "rising up from the ashes" kind of scenario. Truth is no reform will be on the horizon as long as Hizbullah's reign answers to Iran's orders and Hizbullah, of course, will not willingly relinquish power. Unfortunately, I don't see a break to the deadlock without the use of force, even if syria at some point, under international pressure and for political gains, will allow a president to be elected. The Hizbullah card will not change and that is surely the limiting factor.
How and when will Hizbullah domination end will be the spark to the catalyst of reform. I hate to say it, but the only world force willing to take on Hizbullah will be our neighbors in the South, which would bring on the drums of war one more time.
Posted by External Viewer | December 23, 2007 5:14 PM
Posted on December 23, 2007 17:14
There is something in this that I do not like; any agreement or structure of Lebanon should not be built upon a dialogue among religions, but on a secular ideal. There was earlier talk about the "Lebanon of Europe", and this could serve as a model.
Unfortunately, the current struggle has taken far too strong a sectarian dimension, and this is why "there can be no discussion of such issues while" Hezb'o, "and therefore the Shiites"; too many people are now married to the more than just the mix-up of mosque/church and state. As long as those Hez'born-again are hijacking one community, there can be no talk, only conflict. That is, until the return of the Mahdi, who some even claim Nasrallah represents.
Posted by Jeha | December 24, 2007 8:24 AM
Posted on December 24, 2007 08:24
The basic premise of the sectarian system in Lebanon is that religion influences politics. Hence the idea that a Christian president will defend the Christians, Sunni PM will defend the Sunni interests and so on.
Just out of curiosity, are there examples in Lebanon's history (prior to the current mess) where you could truly see a president, MP, speaker, other high-placed official, stand up for their fellow believers and made decisions at the expense of the other Lebanese? If not, than what is all the fuzz about?
Could it be that the reign of influence is somewhat overestimated and that it has a symbolic rather than practical value. Hanging on to it as such, might be the more realistic approach, but it might easily turn out to be a battle of nostalgia.
In any case, a simple solution would be to force the Lebanese to vote for your enemies: you can only vote for politicians other than your own religion. Instead of picking your friends, how about choosing your enemies?
Posted by Riemer Brouwer | December 26, 2007 8:27 AM
Posted on December 26, 2007 08:27
Since we cannot really comment on your editorials in the daily star I would like to ask you a question here: why are so many of your articles preoccupied with the Christians of this country and their political power? Does this problem affect you personally? We are hoping that one day in this country, a person's religion will not have any bearing on their political ideas. Until that miracle actually happens, we ask the supposidly enlightened, unbiased journalists to report on the awful situation in this country for everyone, and not continously rally for the one religious group, and add water to the mud.
Posted by Anon | December 27, 2007 5:55 AM
Posted on December 27, 2007 05:55
If I can come to the rescue here, I interpret Michael Young's concern for the Christian community as a warning to its anihilation rather than a bias. There is no doubt that should the situation persist, the Christian community would be History and our country will soon join the model that the mullahs have laid in Afghanistan.
Posted by External Viewer | December 27, 2007 7:51 AM
Posted on December 27, 2007 07:51
Anon --
I apologize for being slightly rushed at the moment, but let me try to answer your question/complaint as quickly as time allows: If you read my original response to Young's piece, you'll notice that I criticized it for its Christian-centric approach. Essentially, I said that his argument could have only limited impact on a non-Christian audience. So, that's where I stand. I obviously can't speak for Michael regarding why he wrote on what he did.
I do think Lebanon's Christian community gets a great deal of attention, for some fairly obvious reasons. It is the only major sect whose long-term existence in Lebanon is in question, it is a community which is politically divided, and it is the community from which Lebanon's next President must come. For all these reasons, it has been a subject of interest for Lebanon-watchers.
Posted by David Kenner | December 27, 2007 10:11 PM
Posted on December 27, 2007 22:11
Anon,
I think you miss the point, and the other commentators here answered you. But let me clarify anyway. My preoccupation with the Christians may be many things--personal and otherwise--but when you suggest I not allow religion to affect my political analysis, what you are really suggesting is that I ignore how Lebanon really is and write, instead, only about how it should be. I've certainly done that many times, but there are limits to such an approach. The more one writes normatively, the less the value of an article to address, with specific proposals, what is really going on.
On the Christians: I am as eager to see the Lebanese think nationally as you are; I can't remember when sectarianism was so strong (and so petty) in Lebanon, particularly among Christians, and I'm comparing that to the war years. This deeply disturbs me, particularly as I grew up in a mostly Muslim neighborhood.
However, the fate of the Christians in many respects has the potential to affect the Lebanese national compact far more than anything else today, because the Christians are so convinced that they are in terminal decline. The biggest problem we have in Lebanon is that the Christians are often alienated from the country they helped to set up; and this alienation may be disastrous not only for Christians, but for the equilibrium of the other communities in their own relations.
It is in the interest of no community to feel left out of the Lebanese social contract, and, for example, my most pointed criticism of Hizbullah (because I also often write about the Shiites as well) is that their strategy actively depends on feeding off (indeed encouraging) a sense of Shiite alienation. For if a majority of Shiites were not alienated, they would more readily encourage exchanging Hizbullah's weapons for a greater share of the political pie, rather than doubting the legitimacy of Taif--as they so often have done alongside the Aounists.
Posted by Michael Young | December 28, 2007 10:41 AM
Posted on December 28, 2007 10:41