Decision Time

After a few months of ineffective French diplomacy, which did a great deal to neuter the government's negotiating position, there have been some indications that March 14 and its foreign allies are finally strengthening their spine. Whether this is just a bluff, or a serious move to confront the obstruction of the Presidential election, we will see in the next few days.

The first sign was Sarkozy's recent statement that today was Assad's "last chance" to facilitate Lebanon's Presidential election. Next, the Siniora government announced that it might appoint a successor to Pierre Gemayel's Cabinet position is the election on Saturday wasn't held. Finally, the Americans returned to Lebanese diplomacy, with a visit from David Welch to Beirut and a statement by President Bush reiterating his support for a 50 + 1 President.

The aggressive French President was already ignored once, when he announced that last Monday was Lebanon's "last chance" to elect a President. He can't afford to be stood up twice, without without making the repercussions of ignoring him clear. Similarly, the March 14 forces can't afford to have the opposition call their bluff on the Gemayel appointment, only to back down. Soon enough, we will know if the erosion of March 14's position that began just before Annapolis is going to continue, or if the government is going to stand up to Syria & Co.