Try To Stay Positive

I have had time to write lately, I simply have not had much to say. The Presidential elections are currently the only story in town, but there have been no developments worth noting. In retrospect, Nasrallah's speech on the November 11th, and Aoun's remarks throughout the week, signaled the opposition's adoption of a hard-line stance, which has essentially de-railed the possibility of consensus. Both sides are unwilling to elect one of the weak, "octogenarian" Presidential candidates, not only because the Christians insist on a strong President but because the stakes are simply too high to support someone who may not have their back when the chips come down. In this regard, it is hard to blame either side.

Essentially, the ball is in the government's court. If there is no consensus, which is overwhelmingly likely at this point, two governments will be formed. The opposition will try to escalate the crisis in order to build support for an emergency "stability candidate" -- most likely Michel Sleiman. The March 14 coalition will need to elect their own President with as wide a base of support as possible. It should be someone who can credibly be seen to keep tensions as low as possible, and the ability to build bridges among other communities. It's a race for legitimacy. Gentlemen, start your engines...