Spoiling For A Fight

Everyone knew that it was just a matter of time before South Lebanon exploded again. Now, it seems that time could be sooner than most people thought.

Let's start with the Israeli side. Nicholas Blanford speculates that the Israeli generals may believe that, with Hezbollah tied up in a fight over the Presidency with March 14, they aren't prepared for another round with the IDF. Blanford writes that the generals are suggesting, "Israel has a window of opportunity to attack Hizballah's military assets at little cost."

From the perspective of the Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, it seems logical that he may be eager to win any sort of victory he can get over Hezbollah. Though he somehow survived the failure of the 2006 war, his government is still defined by that fiasco. If he could win even a limited victory -- maybe not the complete disarmament of Hezbollah, but an appreciable weakening of its capabilities -- it could resurrect his political career. Think of the relationship between the Yom Kippur War and the Six Day War.

Hezbollah is taking this threat seriously. They just conducted the biggest military manuever in the organization's history. Though the papers do not describe the specifics of what occurred, "military manuevers" by a guerilla army seem to be an exercise in intimidation, rather than training. With the Presidential elections weeks away, the manuevers could also serve a domestic purpose. March 14 leaders who are contemplating electing a President with an absolute majority may think twice when they hear of Hezbollah guerillas swarming throughout South Lebanon. Hezbollah wants to show that it is ready to fight, both against Israel and a March 14-elected President.

Meanwhile, UNIFIL has a front row seat -- to watch, but nothing else. Take a look at this account of a super-spy/Dutch tourist evading UNIFIL roadblocks to reach the Blue Line. His devious tactic was to drive through the checkpoints when UNIFIL was not looking. I thought the understanding between Hezbollah and UNIFIL was that Hezbollah would not parade its arms in public, and UNIFIL would not attempt to disarm them? Not any more, I guess.

Update: This story is taking a turn for the bizarre. Both the Siniora goverment and UNIFIL are denying that anything out of the ordinary transpired in South Lebanon. You would think that the "largest scale manuevers in the history of Hezbollah," as al-Akhbar termed them, would be hard to miss.

The normally unreliable Debkafile was saying that reports of the manuevers were "largely inaccurate" before noon today. I didn't mention it at the time because, well, Debkafile is normally unreliable.