Is Lebanon On the Table In Annapolis?

I know some of you are skeptical that America would cut a regional peace deal in Annapolis at the expense of Lebanon. And I agree that the odds are against it -- but there is enough of a chance for the pro-independence Lebanese to start sweating.

Exhibit one is this Nicholas Blanford article. At the very least, Lebanon's Presidential election is on hold pending the outcome of Annapolis. Both Syria and America want to see what kind of deal they can get before making their next move. "There's been a very clear link in the past two weeks between the Lebanon crisis and Annapolis," says Ibrahim Hamidi, a Damascus correspondent for al-Hayat. Foreign Policy also believes that America dialing down its support of the Siniora government is a prerequisite for peeling Syria away from Iran.

If America would resist trading away Lebanese independence, it should be obvious that Lebanon's southern neighbor wouldn't hesitate for a second. After completing its withdrawal, Israel's only concern is maintaining the UNIFIL troops as a buffer to Hezbollah in South Lebanon. In this post, a prominent Israeli blogger lays out a wide-ranging Middle East peace deal -- that blithely signs away Lebanese independence in a few short sentences.

"So here's the deal. Syria abandons Iran and embrace the US. In other words, become a US ally and beneficiary. In exchange the US could drop all investigations against its leaders for the assassinations in Lebanon and allow Syria to be the controlling power in Lebanon just as it did to end the civil war there in 1989 pursuant to the Taif Agreement. Thus Lebanon would become stable and remain in the US camp. To further strengthen this camp, Syria would have to abandon all rejectionist forces including Hezbollah, Hamas and the others.

...and then Syria could hold free and fair elections, legalize gay marriage, and Bashar al-Assad could have Shabbat dinner with Omert. Really, he'd do all this -- just give him Lebanon back!