Digging In

All signs seem to be pointing to confrontation, not compromise, in recent days. Michel Aoun announced that the FPM will storm the Serail if a President is elected with an absolute majority, and Hezbollah conducted major military manuevers in the pages of Al-Akhbar. It is gratifying to see Lebanon's political class drop the charade of the past month: "Progress is being made! Of course a deal will be reached before the deadline!" Has anyone heard from Nabih Berri recently?

On the international level, the situation is equally tense. Syria is belittling the Mideast peace conference in Annapolis as a "waste." Condi Rice says the United States is opposed to compromise on the Presidential elections, and the French seem to be on board with the Bush Administration.

My guess is that you will start to see more statements like this one, where March 14 MPs reiterate their right to elect a President by absolute majority after the November 12 session. You might also see some of the March 14 leaders who previously announced their support for Presidential elections based on a 2/3 majority, such as Tripoli MP Mohammed Safadi, walking back their statements. After all, it's getting to the point where everyone has to choose their side.