Whither Aoun?

Abu Kais asks a sharp question: is the Aoun - Hezbollah relationship on the rocks? This isn't the first time that March 14-sympathetic Lebanon-watchers have predicted the demise of this alliance, but there are better reasons to think the relationship is on the rocks than before. It's becoming increasingly obvious that Hezbollah isn't going to push too hard, or at all, for an Aoun Presidency. If Aoun doesn't even get Shia support for his Presidential campaign, it is hard to see what he is getting in return for being Hezbollah's Christian cover.

A few hints may be leaking out. The secretary of the FPM's Parliamentary Bloc, MP Ibrahim Kanaan, raised the possibility of the FPM voting in a Parliamentary session to elect the President even if a consensus candidate has not been reached. The FPM may not be able to push Aoun into the Presidency, but they could ensure the two-thirds quorum in Parliament necessary for March 14 to elect a President by themselves. In this scenario, the FPM would likely show up and vote for Aoun -- fully aware that they are going to get outvoted by March 14.

Obviously, this is the worst of all worlds for Hezbollah -- March 14 gets their President in a way that cannot be attacked as unconstitutional. And Kanaan didn't do anything to assuage their concerns by saying that Hezbollah "is not an ally," but merely "a partner in the homeland. We are all partners in the homeland."

Aoun and Franjieh's meeting at Bkirke today, with Patriarch Sfeir, was also called off for unknown reasons. Could the Patriarch have hinted that Aoun's alliance with Hezbollah no longer holds any benefits for the nation as a whole, or even Aoun individually? Aoun is a proud man, and there is still no reason for him to abandon Hezbollah without assurances that he can find another alliance. However, given his current position, March 14 may be able to buy his support for fifty cents on the dollar. Will the government make a deal?