What Is Saad Doing?

Like Mustapha, I'm not sure what purpose of Saad Hariri's meeting this week with President Bush serves. I'm obviously in favor of an alliance between the United States and March 14, so I don't have any objections to Saad cutting deals with the Great Satan. The problem with this meeting, at this time, is that it won't develop the positive aspects of March 14's alliance with the United States at all, while doing a considerable amount to illuminate the problematic parts of the alliance.

At the end of the meeting, President Bush will inevitably make some comment about how Hariri represents the forces in Lebanon supporting democracy and sovereignty. Great, but that's no different from what US diplomats have been saying for the past two years. Those who are still unconvinced by this rhetoric aren't going to change their positions because Bush said it again. We already know that the Bush Administration has put all its chips behind March 14. Those attracted by either American principles or American power are already in Hariri's camp.

But there are plenty of negatives to Saad's visit. It is bound to annoy the anti-American Shia parties in the opposition, and could even hurt the Future Movement's attempts to consolidate its strength among anti-American portions of the Sunni community. I have no problem antagonizing March 8 if there is something tangible to gain in return, but a cardinal rule of politics is that you don't piss people off unless you have a good reason. The meeting gives additional ammunition to Syrian and Iranian mouthpieces. With Lebanon in the middle of a Presidential election, it allows Saad to be painted as an American puppet.

At the end of the day, you have to ask: what about this meeting couldn't be accomplished with a telephone conversation?