Aoun Wobbly Watch, Second Edition
After Ibrahim Kenaan refused to refer to Hezbollah as an "ally" a week ago, Free Patriotic Movement MP Ghassan Mkhaiber takes to the press to declare that the FPM is "deeply rooted in the March 14 spirit."
If Aoun were to become President, Mkhaiber declared, [he] would not allow the return of Syrian hegemony over Lebanon."
That sounds like the statement of a party which has finally realized that General Aoun is not going to be the Presidential candidate of Hezbollah or Syria. The most likely explanation for Mkhaiber and Kenaan's remarks is not that they are laying the groundwork for an endorsement of Boutros Harb or Nassib Lahoud, but that they are trying to build March 14 support for Aoun's Presidential bid. If November 24 approaches without a Presidential deal, the game plan probably goes, March 14 will have to choose between a President elected with an absolute majority, a wishy-washy "consensus" candidate -- or General Aoun. If Aoun can build some bridges in the next month, the thinking goes, he just may be able to pull a rabbit out of his hat.
But I don't think it's going to happen. Aoun may have been able to endear himself to March 14 a year ago -- maybe even six months ago. But now, he is too tightly linked with the opposition protests. By supporting him, March 14 would be conceding surrender in the year-long deadlock. Furthermore, the past year has made pro-government forces rightly skeptical about Aoun's volatility, and his judgment. That doesn't mean the FPM's recent change of heart is politically irrelevant. If the FPM is forced to choose between Michel Sleiman or Nassib Lahoud for the Presidency, they may go with the March 14 candidate over the "consensus" option.
I conducted an interview (poorly) with Mkhaiber a few weeks ago, and made the mistake of referring to him as an Aounist. He quickly corrected me, arguing that though he was affiliated with Aoun's Parliamentary bloc, he is not a member of the FPM. Mkhaiber obviously resented the implication that he was blindly loyal to the decisions of the General. After I had asked my questions, he said something to the effect of: "I hope you are not one of those foreign journalists who describes the opposition as 'pro-Syrian' or 'Hezbollah-led'." Whatever our disagreements, I do believe that his anti-Syrian rhetoric is sincere.
Comments (3)
The trouble with Aboul Mich is that he has "gone too far", and has taken his flock with him. Essentially, there is nothing for him to "go back to".
There is even less for his MP's; as the Metn victory demonstrated, Aoun's brand is currently weak among Christians. Would-be candidates for the seats currently held by his MP's are already waiting en face to replace them at the next opportunity.
As things are developing, him and his "allies" both face a deeper dilemma, which highlights the weakness of a tactical accord that was forged by the Hubris and Vanity of both Aoun and Nasrallah, and that ignores longer term implications.
It will all be brought to bear soon enough, in Baabda-Aley. If there are partial elections, Aoun cannot hope to win Baabda-Aley without the support of Shiite voters. For all the talk about Armenians, they were the real swing voters in Metn already. So;
- Would Baabda Aley be a victory Aoun can afford?
- More to the point, would a Baabda Aley victory be one that Hezb can risk?
I shudder at the long term implications behind those questions. But I feel Aoun does not realize them, and neither does Nasrallah.
Posted by Jeha | October 17, 2007 3:12 PM
Posted on October 17, 2007 15:12
Interesting take on Kanaan and the election, David.
As you point out though, over the past several months, Aoun had tremendous room to maneuver and to get himself elected fairly easily. Only he could have staked that middle ground between Hezbo and M14.
He blew it big time and that's another reason he is an idiot (if anyone is still looking for proof).
Posted by JoseyWales | October 17, 2007 3:31 PM
Posted on October 17, 2007 15:31
Hezbollah officals have recently declared that Aoun is not their only candidate, so I'd say that the orangists are trying to pressure Hezbollah by reminding it that they have some bargaining chips.
Posted by Vox P. | October 17, 2007 7:38 PM
Posted on October 17, 2007 19:38