Inside the Phoenicia

As most of you probably know, the majority of pro-government MPs are holed up in the Phoenicia Hotel at the moment, fearing for their lives. They are secluded from the everyday guests of the hotel, and protected by multiple levels of army security. Despite the protection, it is hard to not worry about security while walking into the Phoenicia. It is probably the most critical building to defend in Lebanon. One catastrophic bomb in the Phoenicia could shatter the government's Parliamentary majority and, in my opinion, would create a near-inevitable downward spiral to civil war.

While the public is kept out of the Phoenicia, the MPs are also kept in. Many of them have been separated from their families; I know of at least one March 14 MP whose wife is living at their home while he lives with a Parliamentary colleague who doubles as a roommate, in what amounts to an extremely opulent college dorm room. It may be a golden cage; that does not change the fact that it is still a cage.

Perhaps the most troubling fact for the MPs is that the threat to their lives does not necessarily end with the Presidential election. No matter who is elected, the surviving March 14 MPs serve an essential purpose: they guarantee the survival of the Siniora government and they must vote on legislation that reaches Parliament (should that blessed event ever reoccur). With no guarantee that it will be safe for the MPs to leave the Phoenicia once a new President is elected, their stay may be extended indefinitely.

"You can't go home again," wrote Tom Wolfe. He should have been reporting on Lebanon.

Guess Who's Back, Back Again?

I have returned from Peru: the land of the llama, pisco sours, and a culinary delicacy called "cuy" -- which you probably know as your childhood pet, the guinea pig. I returned a few days ago in order to observe yesterday's abortive Parliamentary session. I interviewed Future MP Bassem Shab (who replaced Basel Fleihan) and opposition MP Ghassan Moukheiber about their thoughts on what occurred.

Anyway, it's good to be back in Beirut. It should be an interesting few months, to say the least. Expect posting to resume immediately.

The Summer Is Gone, and So Am I

This is just a quick note to let everyone know that I won't be updating the site for about the next two weeks. I'm on vacation outside of Lebanon, and while I've tried to keep abreast of the news it is hard to get the same perspective as when one is actually in the country. That, and I want to go to the beach. Everyone behave themselves until I get back -- which should be just before Berri opens the doors of Parliament for the Presidential election. I am sure that it will pay to be well-rested when that happens.

The Invisible Refugees

I promise we will return to the repercussions of the end of fighting at Nahr al-Bared in the future, but the above graph recently caught my eye. According to UNHCR, 4.2 million Iraqis have been displaced from their homes since the beginning of civil war in Iraq. Over 2 million Iraqis have fled the country entirely.

The vast majority have gone to Syria and Jordan. But as you can see from the graph, Lebanon (population less than 4 million; crippling sectarian issues) has taken in the 7th largest amount of refugees -- about 40,000 people. Meanwhile, the United States (population more than 300 million; actually responsible for the war) has opened its door to around 6,000 refugees, good for 15th overall.

What has happened to these refugees -- and the refusal of the United States to accept more responsibility for their plight -- is one of the great under-reported stories in the Middle East right now. [Hat Tip: Andrew Sullivan]

It Is Over, and It Is Beginning Again

Early reports filtering out of Nahr al-Bared say that, following the defeat of 30 or so remaining militants, that the battle for control of the camp is finally over. Congratulations to the Lebanese army, which fought an incredibly difficult battle under circumstances that were far from optimal.

If the battle to defeat Fatah al-Islam ends today, the battle for control over the new camp begins. Gentlemen, start your engines.

"Despite All That Has Passed..."

Thus sayeth Nabih Berri:

"Let us have a consensus presidential candidate and the opposition will drop its demand that a government in which it has larger representation be formed before the elections are held."

Count me skeptical that this is anything but a tactical retreat. The chances of a unity government being formed before the Presidential elections were already hovering around zero. By relinquishing a demand that clearly was not going to be met anyway, Berri appears magnanimous and boosts the chance of a pro-March 8 president without giving up anything tangible.

The key point of Berri's remarks is that the opposition is only relinquishing their demand for a national unity government for the next two months. After a consensus President is elected and the opposition is back to demanding a veto, it's going to be hard to see what March 14th gained from Berri's deal -- accept a less sympathetic president.

All that said, not all "consensus" candidates are created equal. If the opposition is willing to get behind someone acceptable to March 14 while temporarily dropping their demand for more ministers, more power to them. But let's not pretend the battle has been won. This settles nothing.