The Devil You Know, Or...

March 14th has a problem. Of course, March 8th has plenty of problems, but let's focus on one thing at a time. Right now, the least likely outcome of the Presidential election is one that brings a March 14th candidate to Baabda. Some of the majority have already indicated that they don't have the stomach to elect a President on a 50 + 1 basis, and momentum is moving towards a "compromise candidate," like Suleiman. Whether or not Suleiman is any sort of compromise is another matter entirely, but that's how he is being billed.

None of March 14th candidates have the ability to peel off additional support from the opposition necessary to be seen as a "consensus." As I mentioned in passing, one reason for this is that there are so many candidates that they have not been able to distinguish themselves as individuals. But whatever the reason, March 14th has the ability to veto an opposition candidate (ie: Aoun) but not to push one of their boys into the Presidency.

The risk is that a "compromise" like Suleiman will come along and, taking advantage of a thin veneer of March 14th support from people who should know better, will find himself Lebanon's President. As that becomes more likely, Mustapha notes correctly that the question will become what Aoun will do. And March 14th will have to choose between cutting a deal with Aoun and giving him the Presidency, or rolling the dice on Suleiman. Meanwhile, those of us without a vote in Parliament will spend our time grappling between two clearly imperfect options.