What Victory Means -- And Doesn't Mean

While I hate to rain on everybody's parade, there are some uncomfortable facts that accompany Elias Murr's declaration of "victory" last week.

First, it is important to note that the Defense Secretary was the only person to declare victory. The army stayed mum. I don't believe Siniora has said anything to back up his minister. Murr's announcement was more of a political manuever than a statement of military reality: the politicians want to avoid sending the army into the "old part" of Nahr al-Bared, and fight it out street for street with Fatah al-Islam. So the alternative is to declare victory, and quietly lay siege to Nahr al-Bared until the terrorists decide to come out with their hands up.

Mustapha's map of Nahr al-Bared is a great resource here. What the army accomplished was clearing the "new part" of Nahr al-Bared of militants. This was the overspill from the original refugee camp, which was made up of multi-storey concrete buildings. They did not go into the "old part" of the camp, which is made up of twisting, narrow alleyways and one-storey shanties. Given the geography of the old camp, the fear is that an all-out attack would make the current fighting seem like a cakewalk.

Second, victory does not mean an end to the fighting. Friday's violence proved this point. The army will either need to starve Fatah al-Islam out, kill them, or make a deal with them. And that, of course, is the great danger that Murr's statement brings to the fore. There is the prospect that Lebanon will declare victory, the army will be feted across the country -- and, in the ensuing celebration, the remaining militants will be quietly ushered out of the country.

Finally, victory does not mean an end to the problem of Palestinian militancy in the camps. Nahr al-Bared is only one of twelve camps. No fundamental problems have been resolved. The camps are still outside of Lebanese authority, under the influence of Syrian intelligence services, and made up of individuals who are economically disenfranchised. Until each of these issues are addressed, the Palestinian refugee camps will remain an open wound on the Lebanese nation.