Heading Towards Internationalization?

It's funny -- this all started over a few Ministers. Just give us a minority veto over the government's actions, said Hizbullah, and we'll shut down the protest. And now, the Lebanese are being forced to consider whether they want to abandon the Middle East economically (and maybe politically?), in favor of trading partner and allies across the Mediterranean. Someday, 2006-7 Lebanon will be used as a textbook example for how crisis situations can escalate from narrow demands into fundamental disputes over identity. But we're not quite ready for the textbooks today; there are still decisions to be made.

It is hard to avoid the conclusion, after the recent UN report, that the recurrent, boringly predictable crises with Syria will never end without enhanced border control. "There is no (cross border) cooperation," said the report. There are "several heavily armed Palestinian military strongholds" on both sides of the Syrian-Lebanese border, said the report. There is "a steady flow of weapons and armed elements across the border from Syria," the report said. I apologize for the repetitiveness of this laundry list, but it needs to be said. And, of course, the coup de grace:

"The team said it was unable to document a single instance of a seizure of arms at or near the border during a three-week visit to a 200-mile stretch of territory that concluded June 15."

It is important to address root causes, not just their immediate manifestations. That is why I wrote about what needs to be done in the Palestinian refugee camps following the battle for Nahr al-Bared. And one big root cause for Lebanon's current instability is its porous border with Syria. Unless Syria magically becomes a good neighbor, nothing fundamental will change about Lebanon's security situation. But Syria has been very clear about what an international force on the border means: a complete shutting of all border crossings, effectively cutting Lebanon off from the rest of the Middle East.

My guess is Lebanon could survive the blockade through a combination of modern technology, help from its Western allies, and good old-fashioned smuggling. But if you don't think that isolation from the rest of the Middle East would change Lebanon profoundly, both in economic and political terms, well -- you haven't been living here for the last six months.