Half Full, or Half Empty?
Mustapha, at Beirut Spring, worries that the crescendoing reports of an imminent Army victory are simply a smoke-screen for a shady deal between the Palestinian militants and the Lebanese army. According to Al-Jazeera, this deal involves letting Fatah al-Islam leave the camp with their lives -- they will be deported outside of Lebanon, and their weapons will be given to a security force of Palestinians, which will assume responsibility of the camp.
I don't have a crystal ball that tells me whether Al-Jazeera's report is true, though it does seem that a sleazy deal of this sort would have made more sense a few weeks ago. Since the Army has taken the fighting this far, it makes more sense to finish the battle than negotiate a compromise. But that is circumstantial. The more important question is a larger one: what has Nahr al-Bared taught us about the strengths and weaknesses of the Army?
It is a hard question to address honestly, because of all the mushy tributes to the fallen soldiers, the valentines to our men in uniform, and the media's constant promises of an imminent Army victory (for the past three weeks or so). One doesn't want to appear insensitive. However, from a military perspective, it is clear that the Army is a work in progress. A bunch of upstarts in one Palestinian camp have consumed their attention for over thirty days. According to the latest body count that I saw, on Friday from Agence France Presse, 64 Army soldiers had been killed, along with 60 Fatah al-Islam terrorists. The fact that Fatah al-Islam is killing more Army members than the Army kills Fatah al-Islam is disconcerting, to say the least.
On the other hand, the Army has certainly won a giant "moral" victory. The New York Times notes today that the Army "has served as a rare source of unity in this otherwise fractured land." The fact that all sects feel a strong link to the Army is not for nothing. It will lose that goodwill if it is shown to be ineffective, but at the moment it is the strongest institution in Lebanon. And because of that, it needs to be strengthened -- so it can be a practical source of strength, and not just an moral one.
Comments (10)
the attacking side usually has more losses. this asymetry should be taken into account when balancing out the numbers
Posted by ramzi M | June 20, 2007 9:22 AM
Posted on June 20, 2007 09:22
the Army "has served as a rare source of unity in this otherwise fractured land."
Or is it that most Lebanese hate the Palestinians so much? I remember Lebanese comments during the war last August that if the Army ever became strong enough to take action against domestic enemies, its first target should be the Palestinians, not Hezbollah.
Posted by Solomon2 | June 20, 2007 1:54 PM
Posted on June 20, 2007 13:54
I think the army has earned a -lot of respect over the last 30 odd days. I also think however, that to allow one more of these stupid and assinine arab initiatives to "stop" the fighting will have one effect...make the army irrelevant.
We need to analyse who the people pushing for peace are and what their true motives and agendas are...islamist scholars, etc etc...I think they are all part of the same coin...Syria.
THE ARMY NEEDS TO WIPE THE SLATE CLEAN AND KILL EVERY LAST ONE OF THEM IN THE CAMP...they have already declared no surrender only death...then the Army needs to issue the following statement to all interested parties palestinian or not...NO QUATER WILL BE GIVEN TO ANY DOG THAT RAISES A WEAPON AGAINST THE STATE OR ITS PEOPLE...Ahmad Jibril and PFLP-GC are next followed by the protestors in BCD and then Hizbteezee in dahieh. No more state within a state, no more "resistance" nor more fighting for the palestinian cause from inside lebanon. You wanna fight go there and fight...
Long live the leb army and long live lebanon
AYESH LUBNAN!!!
Posted by Shunkleash | June 20, 2007 3:22 PM
Posted on June 20, 2007 15:22
The Army's support is not a negative one, and hate is peripheral to this.
This is a fight for survival, pure and simple.
The news are hiding a crucial fact. This battle is because more than 4,000 Palestinians have been fighting the army. "Mainstream" Fatah has no local muscle there, and all other local factions appear to be supporting Fath Al-Islam in this. I have only my own experience to draw upon in this, but there are also hints from the Army's command, when it states that more than 3,700 are still "hiding" in the camps because they are wanted for infractions.
Another hint is in the newsreels; most of those who evacuated the camp were women, children, and the elderly.
Posted by Jeha | June 20, 2007 7:28 PM
Posted on June 20, 2007 19:28
Following up on ramzi M, this asymmetry is especially true in an Urban battle set in a cramped camp. Better a paced victory than a hasty defeat.
Posted by Bill | June 21, 2007 6:05 AM
Posted on June 21, 2007 06:05
The news are hiding a crucial fact. This battle is because more than 4,000 Palestinians have been fighting the army.
Jeha, will it become "Sabra & Shatila, the Sequel", then?
Posted by Solomon2 | June 21, 2007 8:05 AM
Posted on June 21, 2007 08:05
I think you're right, Solomon, that the military is lucky in its enemies. An Army confrontation with Hizbullah/Syria would not only be a harder battle militarily, but also divide the population to a greater extent. However, the army has done a good job bridging the gap in politically inflammatory situations as well -- note their peacekeeping missions in Beirut during the current protests.
Jeha, your comment about the other Palestinian orgs fighting the Lebanese army is really interesting. Personally, I've been frustrated by the lack of good reporting on this issue in the north, as well as a whole group of others. The problem, among others, is that reporters are kept so far from the actual scene of the conflict, that there's not much to report. It's very frustrating -- it's the biggest story in Lebanon, and there's virtually no good journalism on it.
Posted by David Kenner | June 21, 2007 8:37 AM
Posted on June 21, 2007 08:37
U.S. intelligence indicates that Palestinian militants in the camp currently have nuclear, biological and chemical weapons. Consequently, it is clearly necessary to destroy Fatah al-Islam with a full force attack that does not worry about "collateral damage". Another option may be to send David Kenner (aka Jack Bauer) in with a swiss-army knife and a pack of matches. Unfortunately, in the second scenario more innocents will likely be injured.
Posted by politicalspartan | June 21, 2007 5:29 PM
Posted on June 21, 2007 17:29
http://edition.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/meast/06/21/lebanon.camp.reut/
Posted by Anonymous | June 21, 2007 7:40 PM
Posted on June 21, 2007 19:40
Great news in that CNN article. If the army had agreed to a compromise now, it would have been disastrous for the country at large and the army specifically.
As a side note, I apologize for the lack of posts in the last two days. Yesterday, I decided to take a day off, and today it appears my Internet did. I'll write something as soon as it comes back.
Posted by David Kenner | June 22, 2007 7:58 AM
Posted on June 22, 2007 07:58