Do The Islamists Have Support In Tripoli?
If Nicholas Blanford is worried about growing support for Fatah al-Islam in the poorer areas of Tripoli, everyone else should probably be concerned as well. This is from an interview of a resident of Tebbaneh, one of the poorer areas of Tripoli:
"'The situation is unbearable for us right now. We feel the government's knives on our necks, and only Fatah al-Islam is there to protect us,' says local resident Mohammed Awad.Graffiti on the stairwell of the Mahmoud family's dingy, rundown apartment building calls for God's blessing on Osama bin Laden and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the former leader of Al Qaeda in Iraq who was killed by US troops almost a year ago."
The week-long standoff between the Army and Fatah al-Islam does not do great thing for Army support in Tripoli. Not only does it make them seem unable to handle a challenge in their own backyard, the constant military clampdown risks alienating normal citizens. There is a natural pressure to reach a solution here -- whether it is a compromise, or total war on Fatah al-Islam. And I can't imagine what a compromise would look like.
The Army launched a new wave of artillery attacks on Fatah al-Islam today, in order to cover the advance of tanks to the camp's gate. It looks like the government might try to continue the momentum of the establishment of the international tribunal, and wipe out Fatah al-Islam once and for all this weekend. If the fighting goes well, we may seem a basic power shift in favor of Siniora. If not, well -- who knows.
Comments (6)
David,
I speak with you not as a blogger, but as a Tripoli native.
When the last parliamentary elections were held in Tripoli, in a largely free suffrage, the Islamists got close to nil in the outcome.
What I'm saying is that although those people are antsy now, they will immediately line up behind political money once all this is over.
One thing the west is finding difficulty understanding is that Islamists are beaten only by a combination of money and brutal power (remember, counter insurgencies in the Arab world have a good track record as witnessed). In gaza, it was the absence of money (sanctions) that empowered them.
Posted by Mustapha | June 1, 2007 11:01 AM
Posted on June 1, 2007 11:01
Sorry, wanted to say:
as witnessed recently by Saudi Arabia's crackdown and by hafez assad's counter insurgency in Hama back in the 80s.
Posted by Mustapha | June 1, 2007 11:05 AM
Posted on June 1, 2007 11:05
Thanks for the comment, Mustapha. I forgot that you were from Tripoli. Keep your head down, okay?
Most of the articles that I've read recently have referred to Tripoli as a city with a strong Islamist presence, so I took it for granted that it was a major force. If you ever wanted to write a post debunking the conventional wisdom, I think it'd be a really interesting read.
Sure, there are have been effective counter-insurgencies in the Arab world -- but there have also been times when the insurgents win. 1979 in Iran comes immediately to mind (not an Arab country, admittedly). More relevantly, Lebanon has a long and obvious history of difficulty in centralizing government and removing alternative centers of power. I'm not saying they can't do it with the Islamists in Tripoli, just that it's an issue that needs to be watched.
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