A Fork In The Road -- Earlier Than Expected

The presidential elections were supposed to be the great gut check for March 8th and March 14th. It was a fork in the road -- the two sides would either choose to escalate the current divisions, or compromise. They would agree on a consensus candidate, the thinking went, or Lebanon would face the prospect of having two different Presidents and two rival governments.

Well, we may not have to wait that long for the rival factions to choose their paths. The assassination of Eido leaves March 14th increasingly afraid that their parliamentary majority will be whittled away with an assassination campaign. As I mentioned earlier, many majority MPs seem to have "gone to ground," spooked by the fear of assassination. In response, March 14th is calling for by-elections to fill the seats "vacated" (to use a peculiarly Lebanese euphemism) by MPs Walid Eido and Pierre Gemayel.

The fact that March 14 wants by-elections is not, by itself, particularly problematic. The situation gets tricky because Syrian Puppet/President Emile Lahoud will likely block any attempt to hold them. Furthermore, Parliament would need to pass a bill validating the by-elections -- and opposition leader Nabih Berri refuses to call Parliament into session. The Parliamentary majority is making noises about holding the by-elections and recognizing the winners anyway, over the objections of Lahoud and Berri.

It is not hard to see where this road takes us. March 14th will recognize the legitimacy of a 128-member Parliament, including the two new members. March 8th will recognize a 126-member Parliament. March 14th would simply ignore the authority of Lahoud to ratify their actions, and of Berri to call Parliament. Once that line is crossed, there is nothing to stop March 14th from holding Parliamentary sessions at their will.

Meanwhile, March 8th would deny the legitimacy of any of Parliament's actions. There would be two de facto governments, similar to what would happen if March 14th elected a new President and Lahoud stayed in office. After that point, Lebanon's fate would be anyone's guess. But there is no doubt that it would be a decisive split -- determining how Lebanon will develop in the near future, and what it will never be.