Why The Army Will Invade Naher Al-Bared

This post, and the one below it, were originally posted on Abu Kais's From Beirut to the Beltway. I'm posting them here in case you missed them, and so that I'll be able to find them should I ever need to either gloat about my foresight, or eat my words.

"We are ready to die," said Fatah al-Islam's Abu Salim Teha.  One can only imagine that most Lebanon feel the same way about Teha.  There has been a bizarre, little pause in the last few days in Tripoli.  The fighting flares and then quickly dies down; only a few grenades have been tossed here in Beirut.  That's what passes for a lull in Lebanon, these days.  During the stalemate, U.S military aid has been rushed to the Lebanese Army, Naher al-Bared is being emptied of civilians, and the Palestinians are trying to broker a compromise.

But don't mistake the intermission for the end of the show.  The Lebanese Army probably will end up invading the camp, for both military and political reasons.  First, the obvious military reasons: thirty soldiers have died.  Armies do not just smile, accept that number of casualties, and walk away.  Fatah al-Islam is also an obvious danger to Lebanon's stability. The Palestinian negotiators have proposed a deal where Fatah al-Islam is allowed to walk away, maybe back to Syria.  There simply is no common ground here.  Unless its members are dead or in jail, Fatah al-Islam will remain a threat to Lebanon.

This also is a (for lack of a better word) good battle for the Lebanese Army to fight.  It is a popular cause -- Fatah al-Islam is widely reviled among all segments of the Lebanese population.  They even lack a base of support among the Palestinians.  Nobody is more aware of their reputation for being an ineffective fighting force than the Lebanese Army itself.  They are also aware that their authority within Lebanon is severely threatened by Hizbullah.  A total victory over Fatah al-Islam would do a great deal to establish their reputation as a serious fighting force, and their legitimacy as the defender of Lebanese security.

The government forces might also hope they can use the invasion of Naher al-Bared to drive a wedge in the opposition.  As Jeha pointed out, the FPM's site is currently a giant Valentine's Day card to the Lebanese Army.  They've pledged to support any action the Army deems necessary, while Hizbullah vows to oppose an incursion into the camp.   A prolonged battle within the camp would put stress on the Nasrallah/Aoun alliance, and establish a larger point about the Army's authority within all of Lebanon.  That's not the message a certain state-within-a-state wants to see the Army deliver.

Right now, the government is happy to equip its soldiers with shiny new weapons, evacuate civilians to make an assault less bloody, and make a show of looking for a negotiated solution.  But in the end, all the arrows point to a final, decisive battle.  The outcome will say a great deal about the strength of the army, and its ability to keep order in Lebanon.  Stick around.  This could be one of those weeks that define the political terrain for future months or years.