Are the Maronites Bowing Out?

It is obnoxious that these articles are reporting that "nearly half" of Maronites are considering fleeing Lebanon are being published, before the actual poll. In all likelihood, even the articles were written without looking at the hard data in the poll, or its methodology. So we'll have to wait for a few more weeks to see if the poll can back up its eye-catching conclusion.

The Daily Star shoots holes -- sort of -- through the poll's (alleged) conclusion that Lebanon's "Islamization" is the reason for the (alleged) Maronite departure from Lebanon. My superficial, anecdotal impression tends to agree with the Daily Star's take -- Christians aren't fleeing because they're worried that Lebanon is going to turn into Iran, they're fleeing because there ain't any jobs here. Of course, the Daily Star article reaches its conclusion through assorted "man on the street" interviews. And really, when faced with the choice of believing the leaked conclusion of an unpublished poll or anecdotal evidence gathered from a couple of interviews, there really is no right answer.

More disturbingly, nobody seems to want to argue with the assertion that there is a mass exodus of Christians (and, to a lesser extent, Sunnis and Shi'as) from Lebanon. Because, when all is said and done, it doesn't really matter why they leave -- no matter the reason, Lebanon is still being deprived of some of its best-educated citizens. In this case, what the pundits choose not to argue about is more instructive than the battles they do choose to fight.