Spy Games

To the extent that politics is entertainment, which is considerable, the disappearance of Ali Reza Asgari is a great story. Asgari is an Iranian general and a former deputy defense minister. In February, Asgari took a trip to Istanbul, checked into a hotel, and -- vanished. Poof. The Iranian line is that Asgari was kidnapped. The Israel/American line is that he defected.

Whether Asgari's disappearing act was voluntary or involuntary matters for two reasons. First, if Asgari had a pre-planned intention to defect, he might have been able to get his hands on valuable documents and reports. The second reason relates to propaganda. Asgari hadn't been a central player for several years -- it's an open question if he has information on the current political battles. But, if he chose to leave, it would be a major embarassment for the Iranians. Michael Young gets it exactly right:

"It may be too soon to judge how big an information coup Asgari's escape will turn into, but it's already a massive political one. The moral of the story is that if the U.S. wants to deal with Iran successfully, it has to do so as much in the darker recesses of state interaction than from the top of aircraft carriers. The Iranians have always been remarkable builders of institutions. If you're going to erode their self-confidence, those institutions have to appear vulnerable. Whatever Asgari divulges, the real impact of his disappearance is that Iran can be penetrated.

Also, check out Michael Ledeen's comments. Enjoy the smoke and mirrors.